“Not a single useful result” has morphed into very specific, though still incomplete, knowledge about the origin of Earth and the universe. If the nineteenth-century author of the Scientific Americanstatement were around today, he might, seeing his surety thrown into doubt, exclaim, “Noooooo!?”
Since the 1965 discovery of the Cosmic Microwave Background, COBE, WMAP, BOOMERanG, and the Planck satellite have given us a rather precise date for the Big Bang, now set at 13.82 billion years ago (give or take a week). Quantum mechanics has given us a relationship between the tiniest and the biggest, and LIGO has revealed that gravity waves exist. In the near future, we’ll probably know whether or not the Big Bang produced its own gravity waves, now at a lower frequency than LIGO could detect, and we’ll have a better handle on the nature of the universe as a result, and possibly learn even more about the origin of Everything.
So what? The what emphasizes a lesson we all know but often forget: We don’t know what we don’t know. I can’t fault the 1868 author for not knowing, but I can fault him for not seeking. Such is the nature of being sure: Potentially, it locks us in ignorance and prevents us from discovery.
Surety. It affects much of what we do. It certainly governs our decisions, even decisions to throw ourselves into circumstances governed by randomness, such as gambling and behaviors inimical to our wellbeing. But being sure is an understandable mental state. It provides security in the knowledge of who we are; it grounds personality, behavior, and relationships. It is the nature of trust in ourselves and in others. The problem is that in being sure, we fail to be open, we fail to seek. And being sure in relationships might dull the future. If we know that our relationship is governed by surety, then we can become complacent. This isn’t a matter of fidelity. Rather, it’s a matter of allowing ourselves to be encapsulated in predictable responses and behaviors that deprive us of our creativity and openness. It’s everyone’s version of the 1868 author’s view that nothing useful will come from a pursuit of the unknown.
Now, we all realize that science is a movable feast and that its menu changes as we discover and invent. Those who were around to read the 1868 Scientific Americanwould be drop-jaw, open-eyed amazed to see TV, jets, rockets, and moon rocks in our museums. Certainly, they would be astounded by the complexity of knowledge and theoretical pursuits of modern cosmologists, such as those of the late Stephen Hawking and the still living Thomas Hertog. With the late Hawking, Hertog published a new view of the Big Bang, Inflation, and a smooth universe based on some aspects of string theory that makes some sense of a theoretical multiverse that might be falsifiable.** Are the two theorists sure? Not completely, but Hertog argues that their work opens the door for more seeking, particularly for the Big Bang’s low frequency gravitational waves. Is there a useful application? Well, remember, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Keep that in mind. We don’t know what we don’t know. Keep the expression in mind for science, and keep in mind in your dealings with others. Oh! Yes. And keep it in mind for yourself. As my wife insightfully once told me long ago, “You don’t really know who you are until you are.” And you really don’t know what you don’t know until you know it.
*Schlenoff, David C. “50, 100, & 150 Years Ago: 1868 Earth’s Origin.” Scientific American, April, 2018. p. 79.
** “Professor Stephen Hawking’s Final Theory on Origin of Universe,” SciNews online, May 3, 2018. http://www.sci-news.com/physics/stephen-hawkings-theory-origin-universe-05971.html
Report on S.W. Hawking & T. Hertog. A smooth exit from eternal inflation? Journal of High Energy Physics 2018: 147; doi: 10.1007/JHEP04(2018)147