You also know that science-types and math-types have done a bunch of modeling to explain the world. You recall history lessons in which Ptolemy’s geocentric model of the universe was replaced by the heliocentric one of Copernicus, and you can comment, “As long as models appear to work, regardless of their alignment with reality, they are useful until they are replaced. If they work, you can act on them. If they work, they are their own reality.”
You’ve seen the models of humanity in sociology, psychology, and philosophy books and in online survey results: So many people act in a particular way; so many will choose this over that; so many will be involved in accidents, crimes, food poisonings, violent confrontations, and TV program binges. How can we question the numbers? Isn’t math one of those irrefutable things? Numbers never lie, and numbers are essential to models.
Keep this statement by Tony Rothman and George Sudarshan in mind: “Mathematics is the language of models.” (280) * The context of what they say lies in our penchant to believe that “if it’s math, it must be from someone who’s smart,” “if it’s math, it’s probably right because mathematicians are objective.” And why shouldn’t we believe in math. Doesn’t the equation 1 + 1 always seem to end invariably?
Models of Earth’s processes, including human interactions, can be instructive. We don’t have to accept them as such, but remember they are mathematically demonstrable if they are “good” models. After all, we often act on the basis of models, so we must find them instructive. We actually alter our behaviors when a credible person or group reveals how some component of the world works by modeling it; we change our language and our views to accommodate new models, such as evolution, quantum electrodynamics, and Marxism. But, really, in psychology, too? Yes, what is DSM-IV? That bible of psychological maladies is the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition. Did you catch that word statistical in the title?
Think this is irrelevant to your life? Aren’t we being encouraged to act because of what the climate models tell us? Don’t we buy or sell stocks on the basis of some model of financial security? Don’t we avoid some neighborhoods and gravitate toward others because of safety models? We even change as the models change. How do you think the eugenics model, derived in large measure from a socialized interpretation of Darwinian biological evolution, itself evolved to a point of founding a Nobel Prize Laureate sperm bank and, before that, to mass murder under the Nazis?
Almost every aspect—if not every aspect—of our lives is model-driven. Even plastic straws, once just part of our mechanism to get liquid into our mouths, have become part of a pollution model. Save the whales! Save the dolphins! Save the oceans! And speaking of the oceans, what happened to the model in which New York City was inundated this year?
Models aren’t themselves the realities of our world, just our way of understanding our world, a way that might change upon some new discovery. And some models are just not in any way easily visualizable, like gravity. The typical “visual” models of how gravity causes planets to orbit the sun involve two dimensional sheets warped by a central mass, like some bowling ball that warps the middle of a trampoline. Yet, space is three-dimensional, and spacetime is four-dimensional. How’s that model working out for your understanding each time you trip or watch the sun set?
In their Doubt and Certainty, Rothman and Sudarshan also note the role of approximations because models are approximations. We say Earth is a sphere, and that’s how we envision it. Our model of Earth, which is a globe, is, however, just an approximation. Earth is slightly oblate, even slightly pear-shaped. But, hey, the image of a sphere works, and for most of our purposes, serves us very well. If we need to work in greater detail, we adjust the approximation, accounting, for example, for the difference between its greater equatorial diameter and lesser polar diameter, or its high-standing continental or low-standing oceanic rocks. **
It might be our willingness to accept approximations as satisfactory models that gets us into trouble when we face the approximations and models of people with opposing views. We tend to accept our own models of the world or society or humanity as objectively valid and reject other perspectives as invalid approximations. It might not even matter to us that we have no “absolute” way of demonstrating the efficacy of our own views (or prejudices). For all of us, there’s a model out there that we accept not just as a representation, but as reality itself.
And the passion! Oh! the passion we have for that special model, or for all of our models! Revolutions have been driven by models: 1776, 1789, 1917, and others too numerous to mention here. And as we keep accumulating models, we observe a recycling of older models or a merging of the newer with the older. The Flat Earth Model still has its adherents. There are still those who believe that eugenics will “purify” a race.
There are demonstrable flaws in all models though they aren’t always immediately recognizable. Ptolemy is long gone, but if no one told you Earth goes around the sun, and you had only your experience as your guide, isn’t it very possible that you, like those ancients in Alexandria, would assume the sun, not Earth, moves? What difference do the models of the Solar System make in your daily life anyway? Some erroneous models are harmless—at least for the everyday person.
What of all those other models to which you fervently adhere? You know, those models you accept because they seem to you to be based on irrefutable math and approximations sufficient enough to explain things as they are? Do you accept the irrefutability of climate change models even though the models themselves have undergone changes? Do you accept the models of utopian worlds promised by politicians, or philosophers, or clerics even though such promises have always come up short of fulfillment?
On what models do you currently base your daily life? *** And what is the level of approximation you accept in those models?
*Rothman, Tony and George Sudarshan. Doubt and Certainty. Reading, MA. Helix (Perseus) Books, 1998.
**Apparently, there are many who won’t accept the spherical model, so I guess we can say that accepting any model is a personal matter. Flat-earthers, for example, can’t comprehend or refuse to accept a round world. One might say, “Well, aren’t they the same as the ‘climate skeptics’ because we know that the climate models are irrefutable as a result of their math?” I’ll let you to entertain the question that asks whether or not the model of Earth is different in kind from a model of climate. In answering, make a note that the IPCC seems adjust its models relatively frequently, always accounting for some unanticipated variable that pops up in new research data.
*** Do you act with passion on any of them? Think of the Occupy Wall Street movement or the current Let’s Go Occupy Senator Diane Feinstein’s Office movement to push the New Green Deal. Do you have that kind of passion over any of your models? Are you willing to revolt over any of your models? Have you a new model you would impose on the world?