Is there something in us that makes us risk an early death? Here’s some advice: See potential danger, avoid potential danger. Run away. Where’s the shame in surviving?
Yet, people like van Zyl and Botha seem to have had a different mindset. Maybe they should have been animal-behavior researchers instead of hunters. The risks there are intellectual, and not physical, ones.
What intellectual risks? Well, the elephant in the room here is the belief in Truth by Analogy. We all succumb to it. Such-n-such is similar to Such-n-such. At least we see the similarity. So, for example, reading animal behavior and projecting it as a lesson for or reflection of human behavior is a common fallacy. At least, that’s the conclusion of Espen A. Sjoberg.** Understanding the animal brain might be worth an effort, but we still have a long way to go in understanding the human brain. Attributing the supposed predictability of our own behavior to animals might be, at times, only wishful thinking. There is always the susceptibility we all seem to have toward accepting what Sjoberg points out: The false analogy, where “inferences based on assummtions of similarities between animals and humans can potentially lead to an incorrect conclusion…[and]…false positive results…particularly if the experiment is not conducted double-blind.”
Botha and Van Zyl appear to have taken an intellectual risk that led to a physical one. After their many years of experience with predatory and large animals, none of it conducted in double-blind experimentation, both seemed to think they had things well in hand. Both no doubt believed they understood animal behavior—maybe because both might have believed they understood animal “motivation.”
Now, you might not be out there taking physical risks, not be out there risking being crushed or eaten, but you might be out in the wilds of humanity, believing that Truth by Analogy is a guiding principle for your own responses to what you perceive to be the motivations for the behavior of others. If so, you, like me, might succumb to our own confirmation biases. Sjoberg gives us a lesson:
A common fallacy is affirming the consequent. This involves the following line of reasoning: if A is true , then X is observed . We observe X , therefore A must be true.
Sjoberg then explains: “This argument is fallacious because observing X only tells us that there is a possibility that A is true: the rule does not specify that A follows X, even if X always follows A…25-33% of scientists make the fallacy of affirming the consequent and conclude that X --> A is a valid argument.”
You think Botha and Van Zyl might have fallen into that 25-33% if they had been animal behavior scientists? Certainly, belonging to that class of intellectual hunters would have been a safer career choice to fall into since one fell beneath an elephant and the other into the mouth of a crocodile.
Four lessons here: Animals aren’t people. Sometimes people aren’t the people you think they are. Analogies might confirm biases. One thing associated on occasion with another thing doesn’t prove anything.
*BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39996592
**Sjoberg, Espen A. Logical fallacies in animal model research, Behavioral and Brain Functions2017, 13:3, 15 February 2017.