TV weather forecasters say this with every major weather event: “The European model predicts…” and “The American model predicts….” The former is the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model); the latter, GFS (Global Forecast System). You hear both mentioned when a hurricane or large storm system like a potential nor’easter threatens. Both models produce predictive tracks within a cone of probability. Recently, Hurricane Helene’s predicted tracks had people from eastern Florida through the Florida panhandle watching in anxiety. The storm did little damage to central Florida around the Orlando area (I know because I was there in Winter Park, where the only damage I saw was Spanish Moss blown off some trees) but devastated the eastern panhandle’s Big Bend region. Neither model, however, prepared people on the Blue Ridge or below in Asheville for the oncoming rain event that killed more than 150 and wiped out towns as the Swannanoa overflowed its banks after some 10-20 inches of rain (24”+ at Spruce Pine) inundated western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.
Helene took her own path. Helene broke the trend. Helene was an outlier in the historical data. The storm deviated from the usual turn to the right, toward the east and northeast, that such storms have historically taken in the Prevailing Westerlies, the wind system that dominates continental United States under the effect of the Coriolis (apparent) Force.
Trend Line
Living in the present, but always concerned about the future, we humans see what’s next in the context of the past. Helene didn’t do what previous storms did; those in the hurricane’s eventual path couldn’t anticipate, but even with preparations, they couldn’t have foreseen the intensity of destruction they were about to undergo.
So, how good are those models? When they appear on TV during a storm’s development, they appear as a set of projected tracks centered on a cone of probability. The variation in prediction is evident as the westernmost tracks diverge from the easternmost tracks, uncertainty growing over the predicted life of the storm.
Should we use R-squared as a predictor? The graph shows the trend when all the elements fall in place consistently. We can assume that if it were for hurricanes, each dot would represent a match with a set of hurricanes that follow a predictable pattern. But storms like Helene would show up as outliers, dots off the trend line, eliciting from us, “Hey, this doesn’t match. The data here fall outside the trend line.”
Trend Line for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
With a verifiable past, Harris and Walz have given us a series of data points against which we can plot the potential future. For those serious about historical data, the coming storm of incompetence appears to be quite predictable. A Harris-Walz Administration will fall in line with the Biden-Harris storms of illegal alien entrees moving into the country like Helene. We should see continuing inflation, climate-driven mandates that stress the energy grid, spending on those illegal aliens that robs Homeland Security’s FEMA of emergency funding for American citizens (as Helene has revealed), weak foreign policy, and kowtowing to special interest groups that put biological men in women’s prisons, restrooms, and locker rooms.
I’ll play TV weather forecaster here. All models point to more of the same. The coming storm will not be an outlier to the Democrat trend of wild spending subject to waste and fraud as we have seen with the COVID money, unguarded borders requiring money for foreigners entering illegally, and a feckless foreign policy that does little to nothing to stop the aggression of Russia, China, and Iran. The only difference between the past trend under Democrats and the future is that the coming storm will intensify more rapidly.
If you want a model of America’s future of “joy and change” under a President Harris, see videos of the towns along the Swannanoa.
Helene took her own path. Helene broke the trend. Helene was an outlier in the historical data. The storm deviated from the usual turn to the right, toward the east and northeast, that such storms have historically taken in the Prevailing Westerlies, the wind system that dominates continental United States under the effect of the Coriolis (apparent) Force.
Trend Line
Living in the present, but always concerned about the future, we humans see what’s next in the context of the past. Helene didn’t do what previous storms did; those in the hurricane’s eventual path couldn’t anticipate, but even with preparations, they couldn’t have foreseen the intensity of destruction they were about to undergo.
So, how good are those models? When they appear on TV during a storm’s development, they appear as a set of projected tracks centered on a cone of probability. The variation in prediction is evident as the westernmost tracks diverge from the easternmost tracks, uncertainty growing over the predicted life of the storm.
Should we use R-squared as a predictor? The graph shows the trend when all the elements fall in place consistently. We can assume that if it were for hurricanes, each dot would represent a match with a set of hurricanes that follow a predictable pattern. But storms like Helene would show up as outliers, dots off the trend line, eliciting from us, “Hey, this doesn’t match. The data here fall outside the trend line.”
Trend Line for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
With a verifiable past, Harris and Walz have given us a series of data points against which we can plot the potential future. For those serious about historical data, the coming storm of incompetence appears to be quite predictable. A Harris-Walz Administration will fall in line with the Biden-Harris storms of illegal alien entrees moving into the country like Helene. We should see continuing inflation, climate-driven mandates that stress the energy grid, spending on those illegal aliens that robs Homeland Security’s FEMA of emergency funding for American citizens (as Helene has revealed), weak foreign policy, and kowtowing to special interest groups that put biological men in women’s prisons, restrooms, and locker rooms.
I’ll play TV weather forecaster here. All models point to more of the same. The coming storm will not be an outlier to the Democrat trend of wild spending subject to waste and fraud as we have seen with the COVID money, unguarded borders requiring money for foreigners entering illegally, and a feckless foreign policy that does little to nothing to stop the aggression of Russia, China, and Iran. The only difference between the past trend under Democrats and the future is that the coming storm will intensify more rapidly.
If you want a model of America’s future of “joy and change” under a President Harris, see videos of the towns along the Swannanoa.
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