Studies of the hitting process reveal two truisms. Williams was right, and all such studies are woefully incomplete. The reason? The process is highly complex, tying perception to action. Involving not only proprioception, but also psychology. The latter arises in knowing tendencies of the pitcher in specific circumstances, the probability that the pitcher might break from those tendencies, the catcher’s pitch calling, the needs and tendencies of a baserunner standing on second, and the mental pressure brought on by a rush of adrenalin. The former involves knowing in split-second timing the arrival time of the ball (the time to contact), the tendency of the ball to move downward under the force of gravity, the position of the hands, supporting movement of the legs and torso, and the proximity to the plate. Did I skip something? Probably, and that’s why hitting is so difficult. Oh! Yes! Willy Stargell said, “They give you a round bat and a round ball and tell you to ‘hit it square’”
And now, after a few seconds of reflection, I realized I didn’t mention that the ball is spinning, changing its apparent size as it moves closer to the plate, and possibly moving either toward or away from the batter. The spin itself might make the fastball appear to rise as it approaches, but gravity won’t be denied. The ball is dropping even over the short sixty feet six inches it travels from mound to plate (shorter depending on the size of the pitcher and length of his arm and release point). Add magnitude to the ball’s velocity: A major league fast ball ranges from 86 to 104 mph. Plus (how much more of this is there?), after the first pitch, all pitches are thrown in the context of a previous pitch or sequence of pitches.
Ted Williams seems to have had a valid point.
But as difficult as the process is, it is not worth $600 million. Or is it? Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million Dodgers contract, which pays him $450 million with another $250 million deferred set the pattern. Now the Yankees might be on the cusp (or the Mets are on it) of signing Juan Soto to $600 million or more. Hitting a fast ball seems to be one of the pinnacles of human endeavors if it’s judged by the salaries of players who do it well.
Brain surgeons make less than star baseball players. Even by Elon Musk standards, a $600 million contract is a sweet deal. And neither Shohei nor Juan have to okay the plans for a spaceship or EV, decide what kind of fuel or battery to use, or run a complex business. Shohei and Juan just have to time a pitch’s arrival at the plate efficiently enough to make contact. And although the world doesn’t turn on the success of batters achieving that, a World Series does. So what makes it so hard that few do it well and only nine players did it better in major league baseball than Ted Williams (lifetime .344 average)? Ohtani and Soto have career averages of .282 and .285 respectively.
Timing a pitch is difficult for various reasons, including knowledge of previous pitches. According to one study, college baseball players involved in an experiment who saw three consecutive slow pitches had difficulty with an ensuing fast ball.* That experiment demonstrated if nothing else that explaining the process of hitting is filled with complexity, for velocity alone isn’t the exclusive parameter governing a hitter’s reaction. Doing the unexpected in baseball favors the pitcher, not the hitter. Those who swing and miss or fail to swing at a strike are among the many who anticipate a curve ball but who get a fast ball; they read the pitcher more than they read the moving ball. Doing the unexpected in baseball favors the pitcher, not the hitter.
Change Up in Baseball
It’s a common scenario, a pattern of breaking the pattern. I’ve seen it, and you have, also, if you’ve ever watched a baseball game. Not slower pitch, slower pitch, slower pitch, but rather, the opposite. Two or three fast balls followed by a slow change up. The batter corkscrews himself into the ground in a swing that is too fast for the incoming ball. The most famous of these change ups is the Eephus pitch, a high-arcing slow (35 mph) pitch that has a history of success and two important failures. Ted Williams hit a homer off one in an All Star game, and Tony Pérez hit a homer in a world Series game, this latter homer spoiling the Boston Red Sox’s bid to win its first Series in 57 years (1918-1975).**
Change Up in Life
Humans love patterns, sometimes too much. The compulsion of some to live routines without change is understandable. We’re lazy as lions by nature, saving energy as a strategy left over from our hunter-gatherer days during which feast or famine meant not over extending one’s energy derived from the feast. Thus, lazy lions, that is, lazy until they’re hungry, and cheetahs that give up the chase when the prey outruns them for a minute or two. (“Ah. Another gazelle will come along”) Maybe wolves and wild dogs, with their ability to run seemingly ceaselessly, are notable exceptions. The rest of the mammal kingdom prefers to stand by the stream like a grizzly waiting for a jumping salmon. Yeah, that’s the natural state of many humans, live the routine because it’s easy to follow a set pattern.
Patterns serve an intellectual purpose, also. Uncertainty in daily life demands an ordering for our world to be meaningful. Thus, we have categorizations like those in biology (kingdom, phylum, class, order, family, genus, species, sub-species, variety) and all the other fields of knowledge. See a pattern; see a meaning. Different kinds of cancer warranting different therapies, both falling into categories. We categorize, we see patterns, we know. TV shows about serial killers often have a profiler who says, “The criminal has a pattern of behavior, so his latest crime is to be expected.” Police engage psychologists to help them solve crimes and predict future crimes: “Such a perpetrator is likely to….” And nowadays, police departments have maps of criminal activity, showing what to expect and where to expect it. Of course anomalous criminal activity can occur outside a neighborhood with a pattern.
Breaking patterns makes for avant-garde art, innovative business practices, and creative approaches to…just about every segment of life. Take Christmas shopping since the rise of the Web and Amazon. The pattern of going to stores disappeared into cyberspace, where it is still good for businesses that adapted as Ted Williams and Tony Pérez adapted to the Eephus pitch.
And You?
Time to look at how patterns influence you and how you attempt to impose upon or see patterns in your social and physical environment. It’s time to look, also, at whether or not any patterns you perceive or believe to exist derive from your experience or from the words of others. The “meltdowns” of so many after the recent election seem to indicate a society of perceived patterns derived from political propaganda.
We are tied to patterns of all kinds. Look around. Look at every aspect of your life and ask how patterns play a role, and whether you need to break the patterns by throwing either an unexpected fast ball or an unexpected Eephus pitch.
*Gray. Bob. “Vision in Flying, Driving, and Sport.” in Jenkin, Michael
R. M. And Laurence R. Harris, EDS. Seeing Spatial Form. Oxford University Press. 2006. 142 ff.
**Wikipedia has a history of the Eephus pitch.