Much of history is approximately dated; the farther back in time one goes, the less certain the date. When there are no written records, we have information through proxies like archaeological studies or radiocarbon, potassium-argon, or uranium-lead dating, these last being methods that scientists constantly refine. Those who do the refining are at it again, recalibrating the radiocarbon dates for some Mediterranean events like the eruption of Santorini.* Ah! Santorini. White buildings with blue roofs perched on the cliffs of a caldera immersed in beautiful blue water. Vacation destination. Does it matter when that setting took shape in a massive eruption? Sitting at a seaside café or by the pool of your hotel, do you have any feeling for those who tended sheep on the sides of the volcano or on the nearby islands? Any feeling for the people called the Minoans?
You might consider the accuracy of your own age-dating: It’s down to the minute for most of us who were born in hospitals. I know, for example, that I’m three hours older than one of my cousins. If I wanted to do the research, I could probably pin that difference down to minutes. That difference in time is an insignificant fact that is at best interesting to my cousin and me and maybe to some relatives. But what about that eruption of Santorini? One would be hard pressed to proclaim the event “insignificant.” When Thera erupted, it appears to have literally wiped out a vibrant civilization and set the stage for the rise of the ancient Greeks who gave us geometry, philosophy, and the rudiments of science.
Does it matter that the volcano might have erupted in the 16th rather than in the 17th century BC? Possibly. Remember that after that eruption pre-Greek culture arose. Who exactly had the most influence on ancient Greece? Was it the Minoans? The Mycenaeans? Who cares?
So, imagine now that you are an archaeologist or a radiocarbon scientist living 3,000 years from now trying to figure out when a pandemic affected the path of human civilization. Does it matter if it occurred in 2019, 2020, or even 2050? How refined do you want your age-dating? Of course, just as the powerful, civilization-destroying eruption of Thera was a significant event for those of the time, the pandemic of 2020 is a potentially significant civilization-altering event of this time. But the farther in time we are from this or any other event, the less we personally concern ourselves with the timing of its exact happening. How related do you feel to the people of 3,500 years ago? Not, obviously, as much as you feel related to your contemporaries.
Yet, that event shaped in many ways who and your contemporaries are. The rise of the ancient Greeks changed how people saw the world, and their culture has influenced even the peoples of the Far East as globalization proliferated through tentacles of trade and conquest around the world. And this pandemic event, not so localized as the eruption of Thera, is bound to have a lasting influence.
We could argue that in every age, we can see the rudiments of the future. Having the perspective of written history and archaeological discovery aided by radiocarbon dating, we are probably more aware of changes that big events engender than the peoples of ancient cultures could foresee. Note the numbers of TV commentators and newspaper editorialists in the midst of the SARS Covid-19 pandemic predicting the changes to come. They don’t really know the details because no one can precisely say how events will unfold beyond the obvious changes most can perceive. Cataclysms have come and gone and will continue to come and go, and their effects have dendritic patterns. Some branches of change will be temporary setbacks to the march of local civilization; others will be growths of new trends.
From the perspective of today’s global view of things, that eruption of Thera was rather local, though as we know, large eruptions can alter the amount of incoming sunlight and, as a consequence, lower worldwide temperatures. We saw that recently when Pinatubo erupted. No doubt some far distant groups were affected 3,500 years ago without knowing what caused their change in weather. Those who lived throughout the Northern Hemisphere millennia ago couldn’t see the spread of volcanic ejecta through the stratosphere, ringing Earth with dust and sulfur dioxide. You, by comparison, are well aware of the nature of the current world-altering event; you have watched the virus spread. And for you dating this event is not an approximation, not a range of years spanning half to whole century, not something that you note as “c. 2020” or “cir. 2020.” You mark it as January, February, March, or some other month in 2020 when you feel its direct effect.
For you, regardless of your acceptance of “circa” for events long past, there’s nothing approximate about the events of the present.
*https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200319141036.htm Accessed April 1, 2020.
You might consider the accuracy of your own age-dating: It’s down to the minute for most of us who were born in hospitals. I know, for example, that I’m three hours older than one of my cousins. If I wanted to do the research, I could probably pin that difference down to minutes. That difference in time is an insignificant fact that is at best interesting to my cousin and me and maybe to some relatives. But what about that eruption of Santorini? One would be hard pressed to proclaim the event “insignificant.” When Thera erupted, it appears to have literally wiped out a vibrant civilization and set the stage for the rise of the ancient Greeks who gave us geometry, philosophy, and the rudiments of science.
Does it matter that the volcano might have erupted in the 16th rather than in the 17th century BC? Possibly. Remember that after that eruption pre-Greek culture arose. Who exactly had the most influence on ancient Greece? Was it the Minoans? The Mycenaeans? Who cares?
So, imagine now that you are an archaeologist or a radiocarbon scientist living 3,000 years from now trying to figure out when a pandemic affected the path of human civilization. Does it matter if it occurred in 2019, 2020, or even 2050? How refined do you want your age-dating? Of course, just as the powerful, civilization-destroying eruption of Thera was a significant event for those of the time, the pandemic of 2020 is a potentially significant civilization-altering event of this time. But the farther in time we are from this or any other event, the less we personally concern ourselves with the timing of its exact happening. How related do you feel to the people of 3,500 years ago? Not, obviously, as much as you feel related to your contemporaries.
Yet, that event shaped in many ways who and your contemporaries are. The rise of the ancient Greeks changed how people saw the world, and their culture has influenced even the peoples of the Far East as globalization proliferated through tentacles of trade and conquest around the world. And this pandemic event, not so localized as the eruption of Thera, is bound to have a lasting influence.
We could argue that in every age, we can see the rudiments of the future. Having the perspective of written history and archaeological discovery aided by radiocarbon dating, we are probably more aware of changes that big events engender than the peoples of ancient cultures could foresee. Note the numbers of TV commentators and newspaper editorialists in the midst of the SARS Covid-19 pandemic predicting the changes to come. They don’t really know the details because no one can precisely say how events will unfold beyond the obvious changes most can perceive. Cataclysms have come and gone and will continue to come and go, and their effects have dendritic patterns. Some branches of change will be temporary setbacks to the march of local civilization; others will be growths of new trends.
From the perspective of today’s global view of things, that eruption of Thera was rather local, though as we know, large eruptions can alter the amount of incoming sunlight and, as a consequence, lower worldwide temperatures. We saw that recently when Pinatubo erupted. No doubt some far distant groups were affected 3,500 years ago without knowing what caused their change in weather. Those who lived throughout the Northern Hemisphere millennia ago couldn’t see the spread of volcanic ejecta through the stratosphere, ringing Earth with dust and sulfur dioxide. You, by comparison, are well aware of the nature of the current world-altering event; you have watched the virus spread. And for you dating this event is not an approximation, not a range of years spanning half to whole century, not something that you note as “c. 2020” or “cir. 2020.” You mark it as January, February, March, or some other month in 2020 when you feel its direct effect.
For you, regardless of your acceptance of “circa” for events long past, there’s nothing approximate about the events of the present.
*https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200319141036.htm Accessed April 1, 2020.
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