End Times? Tell Me It Ain’t So.
Canadian fires! Is the END upon us? Could it be that THIS FIRE EVENT is just like the Hurricane Sandy flooding of New Jersey and New York City the ACTUAL END? Where to run? Where to hide? I think of Nina Simone’s prophetic song “Sinnerman.” *
But the June 2023 fires in Canada aren’t, regardless of the alarmists’ claims, an indication that the end is upon us—no, that will come from the firestorms that we might set off in the madness of a nuclear holocaust. Think the Canadian fires are bad? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet if the world goes nuclear. And, by the way, thanks for threatening that this past year, Mr. Putin.
But since the alarmists want to blame the fires on climate change and carbon dioxide, which, ironically, would put out a fire, then we should address the issue. There are some nagging facts about forest fires to consider, and they aren’t just facts about bad fires in historical time (see below).
Way Back
Let’s go geologic time, you know, not just thousands or tens of thousands of years ago, but tens to hundreds of millions years ago. Let’s go back to the first forests. And golly, by coincidence New York just happens to be a place where you can get a hint of those forests. You just have to go to the Gilboa Dam to see their fossil tree stumps. Really, I’ve been there. The stumps are there. I’ve not only seen them, but touched them. In the current forests of southern New York there are fossils of its ancient forests.
Devonian Forests
Let’s take a quick time trip to the Devonian Period, 419 to 359 million years ago. New York during that period harbored some of the first forests. Their development began with plants belonging to the taxon Eospermatopteris. You can see their remnants in those Gilboa Forest fossils. Maybe growing to a height of about 25 feet, their tops have been called Wattieza, and they serve as a good indication that the leafless branches of these “seed ferns” were photosynthesizers. They lived in somewhat wet areas, making me think of today’s environments where ferns thrive. Forests of these plants go back to about the middle of the Devonian if not earlier. And their contemporaries included other tall ferns like Cladoxylopsida. In fact, Cladozylopsids seem to have aggregated in “forests” even before the Devonian, that is, in the Silurian Period over 419 million years ago.
Now, it might be inappropriate to call these aggregations of seed ferns “forests” because the “true trees” evolved a bit later. But let’s not quibble over the word forest by relegating it to populations of gymnosperms and angiosperms that make up today’s forests. A rose by any other name… Anyway, during the Devonian some very large “trees” evolved, including the group known as the Lepidodendrales, exemplified by the Lepidodendron whose fossil is common in the coal fields of New York’s close southern neighbor (Pennsylvania being that place). Lepidodendron grew to about ninety feet tall. That’s pretty big, so a forest of them probably looked much like today’s mature forest that hasn’t been decimated by logging.
Can we miss the forest for the types of trees in this discussion. Where was I? Oh! The forest fires of today and the alarmists claim that climate change is the cause.
Carbon Dioxide and Oxygen, Both Components of the Atmosphere
Today, the alarmists are alarmed that carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has risen to over 400 parts per million. Any idea what the evidence shows for the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere during the Devonian when those first forests formed? And what about the oxygen content of Earth’s mostly nitrogen atmosphere during that same time? Remember that carbon dioxide is “plant food” and fire is oxygenation, rapid oxygenation.
Today, O2 comprises 20.99% of our air. During the Devonian, the oxygen levels changed from about 20%—about the same as today’s level— to about 27.5%—and as an aside, I should note that there’s evidence Devonian seas became in places woefully anoxic, woeful for life, that is, so much so that marine extinctions occurred and black shales accumulated in lifeless zones. But generally, the Devonian atmosphere had a pretty rich oxygen content, just the right stuff to fuel a fire.
What about the carbon dioxide necessary for photosynthesis and thus terrestrial plant growth in the Devonian? It seems to have been about 4,200 parts per million at the beginning before dropping to 2,900 ppm in the Middle Devonian. Then it rose again to over 3,500 ppm in the Late Devonian. That is, between 363 million and 259 million years ago the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere was close to nine times today’s content. Keep those figures in mind: Oxygen content was greater and carbon dioxide content was very much greater by comparison with today’s numbers.
Must have been a pretty warm world back then. Probably on occasion a bit smoky. In the absence of careless campers, thoughtless smokers who cast still lit cigarettes out car windows, and human arsonists, the Devonian world had the same natural ignitors that the human Pleistocene and Holocene worlds of recent and present time have had and still have: Lightning and lava.
Ancient Forests Burned just like Modern Forests
Surely, there would have been natural fires fanned by downslope winds on the leeward sides of the Acadian and Caledonian mountains, much like the western American fires that the Santa Ana winds fan in our own times. Surely, there would have been extensive droughts over old forests where accumulating dead woody plants served as fuel—much like the accumulating dead wood in the poorly cared for federal lands in both Canada and the US. [You humans never learn, do you?]
The Devonian Period was a time of continental buildup prior to the formation of Pangaea. Canada and the US were part of the northern supercontinent called Laurasia, a landmass that lay on the equator and whose formation included the Acadian and Caledonian mountain belts caused by continental collisions that made a landmass stretching from Canada and New York through Scotland and Scandinavia to sections of Russia.
Fires? I can’t think they didn’t occur even in a world with less total continental landmass than today’s world (15% more of the world was covered by water back then). And droughts? Take a drive from Maryland’s I-68 to New York’s I-84 and I-95. You will see redbeds, that is, reddish rocks indicative of long dry periods probably associated with the leeward side of the Late Paleozoic mountains [think Nevada as an analog]. The redbeds have some thin layers of glauconite, a greenish mineral that formed in a relatively shallow epeiric sea]. The point? Yesterday’s, deep-yesterday’s, world was very much like the world today. Some places were forested, some not, some transitional. And the weather? Well, it was probably as unpredictable as it is today—especially since there was no conscious being around to boast prophetic powers nightly on TV.
But the Alarmists Say…
Do you recall what Andrew Cuomo said when Hurricane Sandy flooded New York? The governor said it was a “wake-up call” forced on New Yorkers by climate change, which he said was undeniable. He said that “when we built and designed New York [City], we didn’t have hurricanes and floods.” ** Is that so, Cuomo?
Fact Check: No, Governor Cuomo, that’s not so. *** According to the list compiled for a Wikipedia article, New York has been affected by some 85 tropical storms, including hurricanes, since the seventeenth century. That’s relatively recent times as Earth history goes and covers the period when the Dutch and the British colonists began to construct the villages that would become New York City. And I think we can safely say that forest fires have also occurred not only during the development of “European” New York, but also prior to its development. Is it just a lack of knowledge about the past, or is it just a lack of foresight, like building a village at the foot of an active volcano? Is it a lack of historical perspective, making people believe that the Now is a Forever and that the Now had no variable Past? Ah! The hubris based on ignorance and exhibited by a sitting governor idolized by an equally ignorant Press. New Yorkers built New York just as everyone has for all human history built encampments, villages, towns, and cities: Convenience of resources, accessibility to trade, and just plain, “Well, this seems as good a place as any to plant ourselves; besides, I’m tired of the nomadic life.” As the “wise species,” we aren’t really known for our ability to foresee the consequences of our actions and the choices of our settlements. Although they might have been naughty, the residents of Sodom and Gomorrah also chose to live in a fault zone. Can anyone say, “San Francisco”?
Target Oxygen
As I have written numerous times, Earth is a risky place. Granted, it’s the only place for us, but we’ve had a rough go of it here. There’s no alternative, of course. But our inability to plan for the vicissitudes of weather, seismic and volcanic activity, and tsunamis shows how vulnerable we are. And we increase that vulnerability by living in the midst of more, rather than less, danger because of our hubris and shortsightedness.
Want that vacation home on the shore? Want a cabin at the base of a mountain? Want a dock on a river for your boat? It’s our desire that fuels our hubris that we can have whatever we want wherever and whenever we want without risk.
Did the people of San Francisco in 1906 ever feel the ground shake before the devastating earthquake? Sure, seismology was in its infant stage prior to that event, but the ground did, in fact, shake at times, rattle the dishes, and even knock down something. Name a place where some natural disaster has occurred and recognize that sans humans, sans disaster. We choose by pride or necessity where to live.
And living in a forested region, such as eastern Canada south to North Carolina, means living in a region that is a potential fire zone. Fires happen where burnable stuff accumulates.
So, the alarmists would have us cut out our fossil fuels. But what chance do they have of altering the atmospheric content? We know that carbon dioxide has increased to at least nine times the current quantity without any human intervention, without anthropogenic emissions. We also know that it has fallen to the low of 250 parts per million without our undoing any anthropogenic emitting—that 250 number being the amount at the start of the Industrial Age. Earth did that all the pre-human increasing and decreasing all by itself. No help from us, just as it did the increasing and the decreasing all by itself during the Devonian.
So, do the alarmists believe they can stop forests from burning? Is that an additional reason to reduce the quantity of “plant food” in the atmosphere? And will their next target be oxygen? What about targeting the trees themselves? After all, no trees, no forest fires. **** But also, no humans, no human disasters.
If a Tree Burns in a Forest
If a tree burns in a forest and there’s no one there to observe, does the wood still crackle as it burns?
None of this, of course, will mean anything to alarmists. They are committed to their belief in a science that cannot quantify the amount of global cooling America’s going off grid will effect. They see the future as a consequence of only human actions. Unfortunately for them, they won’t be around to hear the crackling wood or smell the smoke from the future’s fires. But that doesn’t mean those fires won’t happen. They happened before. They’ll happen again—unless we eliminate oxygen and wood.
*Click on YouTube: Nina Simone. “Sinnerman” and NINA SIMONE - Sinnerman (1965) [Video Clip]
**See YouTube: NYS Governor Cuomo: Hurricane Sandy is 'Wake-Up Call' on Extreme Weather & Climate Change. As for New York City itself, consider that in 1938 a Cat 3 hurricane killed 10 and knocked out power in both the Bronx and Manhattan above 59th St, plus it toppled 100 large trees in Central Park. You can see a recounting of some of the storms in more than one site online. Suffice it to say that though Cuomo, born in 1957, didn’t personally experience the 1938 or even the 1955 hurricanes, nor most of the other storms that occurred since the seventeenth century, he might have thought as governor to read about the history of violent weather in his state.
***Leave it to good old Wikipedia to have a list: See “List of New York hurricanes”
****Any forest fires in the Mojave? In the Gobi? In the Sahara?